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Progress by Welsh local authorities towards their Unitary Development Plans is highlighting problems of changing housing needs, with implications for land use planning which must concern CPRW. This paper is a contribution to the debate based mainly on participation in the Mid and West Wales Strategic Planning Forum, led by local authority staff of the old Dyfed-Powys counties. This sub-region covers about half of Wales and is fairly representative of areas outside the Cardiff-Newport-Swansea conurbations.

.The predictions of housing need rest heavily on extrapolations of demographic data from the period 1981-1996 forward to 2016. While all such predictions should carry a health warning, it is particularly worrying that in this sub-region, natural growth [balance of births and deaths] was negative in the period 1991-1995.

•  This means that inward migration accounted for most of the population growth, which is less predictable than natural trends. 
  
• Additionally the trend to smaller households is used to augment the demand for more new housing. This is also a cultural rather than a simple demographic process and similarly likely to be unstable in the medium term.

 These problems are recognised by local authority staff who accept the need for a systematic and comprehensive housing needs assessment as accurate indicators of housing needs are not available

.However, in spite of these acknowledged difficulties quite detailed predictions of future needs have been produced.

Clearly a measure of scepticism is justified and CPRW should not accept either the population or housing figures without considerable reservations. 

• Where is this increase coming from? 
  
• Why should we provide 31,000 houses for 36,000 people?
  
•  How many of these households would be new build?

The following issues seem worth pursuing: 

 This implies development within existing built-up areas of towns and villages. However, preservation of public open spaces within built-up areas may be desirable to soften the urban environment thus reducing the area of brownfield sites available.

 Generally, these are preferable to fresh starts.

 Sadly, this issue is often addressed with a strong dose of polemic against incomers who move into pleasant areas and raise property values so that locals cannot afford to buy or rent houses, etc, etc. We need a full debate which recognises that these problems are about shortage of money not shortage of houses. 

 All over this sub-region large numbers of houses remain on the market for periods of a year or more. Indeed at a simplistic level one might ask why more new houses of any kind are needed when there are so many unsold properties. The large number of houses (council and others) boarded up for long periods raises the same questions.

As much of the increase in households is predicted to be one-person or single parent households, should this be met by encouraging redevelopment as self-contained flats? Many small Welsh towns contain a lot of large Victorian houses. 

VAT on building materials for new housing is reclaimable, i.e. it is VAT-free as no VAT is involved in the final price. On the other hand, refurbishment, upgrading and maintenance are eligible for VAT. The difference is 17.5% of cost. Hardly surprising that most builders prefer new work, preferably a few properties to a single design. Is this a deterrent to small-scale reconditioning and extension work? Should we be lobbying for a change of rules?

This last brings us to crucial questions of CPRW's future role. To protect the rural landscape and its amenities the reactive approach is for Branches to keep a watching brief on planning applications and enter selective objections.

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www.cprw.org.uk/magartcl/pplhouse.htm 27/3/00